For what it’s worth, history will be on Barack Obama’s side in November.
Since 1900, this country has had 19 presidential elections with incumbents on the ballot. In 14 of those 19 cases, the incumbents have won. In four of the five exceptions, incumbents endured serious challenges for their party’s nomination. William Howard Taft faced the bitter defection of his old mentor, Theodore Roosevelt; Gerald Ford was forced into sudden-death overtime by Ronald Reagan; Jimmy Carter had to tangle with Ted Kennedy; and George H.W. Bush was attacked from his right flank by bomb-throwing culture warrior Pat Buchanan.
Unlike those hapless one-termers, Obama has a fairly united party and will face no ugly dissension at the Democratic National Convention. Even with a so-so economy and rising gas prices, you have to think it’s his race to win, if he turns out the base. That’s a big "if," and that's what Wednesday’s national Latinos for Obama house party was all about.